Don’t Write the Republicans’ Eulogy Yet

If there’s one thing I have learned in my fairly short life so far, it’s that one should not completely trust any predictions, whether they be about the weather or the stock market.  And so I cringe a bit as I hear of serious conversations on DailyKos and the Huffington Post about banning the Republican Party.  Perhaps you can recall a few years ago, when Karl Rove and the Republicans were talking about a “permanent” Republican Party, and Zell Miller came out with a book entitled A National Party No More, condemning the Democrats for catering to the far left.  The irony, of course, is thick enough to choke on.  Every party has its ups and downs.  Four years ago, the Democrats seemed belaguered, having lost 2 presidential elections in a row, and having had no control of Congress, aside from a few brief patches, since the Class of ’94.  Yet the Democrats have come back to win the Oval Office with greater margins than either of the elections George W. won, and have secured their hold on both houses of Congress, drawing close to the crucial 60 votes in the Senate.  Unless the Republicans turn out like their predecessors, the Whigs, they will return to power, in all likelihood.  And the comparison to the Whigs seems a false analogy, since the Whigs never really gained traction; they only had 2 elected presidents, and both died.  My sense is that the Republicans will probably spend 6-8 years in the wilderness (don’t even consider another 1994; the circumstances are quite different), figuring out why they lost and retooling their message (hopefully).  Then they’ll come back onto the political stage, and the cycle will begin anew.

Here’s a justification for 2010 not being 1994 redux, which I agree with.

And, also from Marc Ambinder, thoughts about how the Republicans might respond to the Obama Administration.

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3 Responses

  1. The Republicans will be back, but I think that 2010 is too early.

    1) The political pendulum ebbs and flows. The independents push it to the right when it goes too far left, and then pushes it to the left when it goes too far right.

    2) Single-party dominance in Washington needs time to screw it up and really the independents against them.

    3) If the Dems were smart, they would govern from the center. Then again, I yield to the first part of my statement.

    4) Meanwhile, the time is right for Republican rebranding. But into what? Time will tell, yet history says 3 election cycles. By the way, the independents will determine if the rebranding is acceptable.

  2. I tend to agree with that; we’re going to see the Republicans back in power, it’s only a question of when. And 2010 is probably too early for them to recover. So my bet is that 2010 will show retrenchment of Democratic gains, and possibly a small advance. The only way for the Republicans to get back in power in 2010 would be to either retool very quickly (not advisable; haste makes waste) or have the good fortune to have the Democrats screw up royally. So far, President-elect Obama has shown few signs of that. There is, of course, no telling what lies in the future, but I’m cautiously giving the Republicans’ earliest possible comeback point as 2012. I could be wrong, though. It wouldn’t be the first time. And thanks for stopping by!

  3. […] Tags: Change, Democrats, Republicans, Revolutions, The Great Republican Renovation trackback As I stated before, there is no doubt that the Republican Party will be spending some time on the outside looking in. […]

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